As we step into a new era characterized by rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and the escalating demand for consumer electronics and servers, the production of copper foil for printed circuit boards (PCBs) is poised for significant growth. Experts estimate that between 2023 and 2030, the global demand for high-end PCB copper foil could witness a remarkable compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%, resulting in a projected market size of approximately 36 billion yuan (around $5.5 billion) by 2030. This surge is attributed to several factors, including the technological breakthroughs achieved by domestic copper foil manufacturers, which are gaining increasing recognition from international clients like NVIDIA, suggesting a potential shift away from the previous dominance of foreign enterprises in this crucial sector.

Focusing on specific types of copper foil, high-frequency high-speed foil and carrier foil represent significant categories that are essential for the development of AI servers and chip packaging applications. Copper foil serves as a cornerstone material in the electronics information industry, akin to its role as a neural network within the realm of circuit boards. The high-frequency high-speed copper foil can be effectively employed in cutting-edge products such as AI servers, while ultra-thin carrier foil is crucial for the intricate processes of chip packaging. These high-end foil types are required to possess high peel strength and low surface roughness. In comparison, the carrier foil incurs more complex processing requirements, placing considerable demands on companies' surface treatment technologies. Currently, most patent holdings related to surface treatment techniques belong to Japanese and Taiwanese companies, necessitating Chinese manufacturers to import the requisite equipment for the production of high-end copper foil.

The PCB copper foil market is entering an upward cycle, buoyed by advancements in AI technology and a broad-based recovery in consumer electronics demand. According to Prismark, the global PCB market is expected to achieve a CAGR of around 14% from 2023 to 2026. Within the sphere of AI servers, the GPU boards and the related chips are increasingly demanding superior high-frequency high-speed and carrier copper foil, which is forecasted to expand at a staggering CAGR of 69% in the PCB market for AI servers from 2024 to 2026. Hence, consequently, the demand for high-end PCB copper foil is expected to escalate correspondingly, with estimates suggesting that by 2030, demand could reach as high as 206,000 tons, leading to a CAGR of roughly 10% during the 2023-2030 period.

Currently, foreign enterprises hold a dominant position, wielding significant influence over the global high-end PCB copper foil market. According to the China Copper Foil Association (CCFA), in 2023, Japanese and Taiwanese manufacturers collectively captured approximately 42% of the domestic PCB copper foil market share, while Chinese companies lag considerably and remain fragmented. Notably, over 90% of the market share in high-end PCB copper foil is captured by companies from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. As a result, China is compelled to import substantial quantities of high-end PCB copper foil annually, with imports in 2023 exceeding exports by 98%, and the average import price was 43% higher than the export price, resulting in a trade deficit of around $720 million. Furthermore, the copper foil export price from Japan in 2023 was over twice that of Chinese copper foil, with local processing fees around ten times higher.

Despite these challenges, domestic manufacturers are rising to prominence, especially against the backdrop of intensified U.S. sanctions. The domestic copper foil market shows promise for a robust domestic replacement trend for high-end PCB copper foil. Copper foil is an irreplaceable foundational material within the realm of electronics information, playing an essential role in PCBs and other related applications. Historically, the copper foil industry has undergone two momentous shifts in production capacity that dramatically reshaped its global landscape and facilitated pivotal technology transfers.

The first production shift occurred as traditional copper foil manufacturing regions in Europe and North America transitioned to Asian nations like Japan and South Korea. During this transition, manufacturers from these countries adopted and improved upon advanced production technologies and management practices from the West, resulting in substantial innovations and enhancements, which enabled them to establish a significant foothold in the global copper foil market. The second shift is noted for the large-scale migration of PCB copper foil production capacity to mainland China, correlating with the expedited growth of the electronics information industry within the country.

As production capacity continues to concentrate within mainland China, domestic copper foil manufacturers are embracing unprecedented development opportunities. A multitude of companies within the country have stepped up investments in research and development, equipment upgrades, and talent cultivation, actively drawing on and learning from foreign advanced technologies, thereby significantly elevating their technical capabilities through continuous innovation and practical exploration. A typical case is Defo Technology, which has emerged as a significant player within the domestic copper foil industry. Their advancements in the research and manufacturing of PCB copper foil have reached levels comparable to some prominent overseas suppliers, excelling in key parameters such as foil thickness uniformity, surface roughness, and oxidation resistance, thereby meeting the stringent criteria set for high-end PCB production.

Fortified by these superior product attributes, Defo Technology has garnered acclaim from internationally renowned clients, including NVIDIA. Recognized as a leader in the semiconductor sector, NVIDIA maintains extremely high standards regarding product quality from its suppliers, making Defo Technology’s status as a supplier a testament to its outstanding product excellence and signaling a further enhancement in the competitive stature of domestic copper foil producers in the international arena.

Looking ahead, it is anticipated that the global high-end PCB copper foil market will balloon to a size of 36 billion yuan by 2030. As domestic copper foil manufacturers continue to ramp up investments aimed at expanding high-end PCB production capacity, they are not only enhancing their production scale and efficiency but are also actively engaging in customer certification processes to increase market share. Moreover, the heightened pressures from the U.S. on China's semiconductor industry, while presenting certain obstacles, also create fresh development opportunities for domestic copper foil enterprises. In this context, the share of domestic enterprises in the high-end PCB copper foil market is likely to expand further, projecting a possible 15% share by 2030, equating to a market value of 5.4 billion yuan. The high-end PCB copper foil market in China is expected to experience a remarkable CAGR of 42% from 2023 to 2030, underscoring rapid growth.

To achieve this ambitious target, domestic copper foil firms must continue to prioritize technological innovation while enhancing product quality and performance to meet the surging demands for high-end PCB copper foil. Additionally, these enterprises should solidify their partnerships with downstream clients, gaining deeper insights into customer needs to deliver superior products and services. Government support is also crucial, with policies fostering innovation and upgrading industrial capabilities to nurture healthy growth within the domestic copper foil sector.

In summary, as PCB copper foil production increasingly shifts to mainland China and local companies enhance their technical capabilities, prospects for domestic enterprises in the high-end PCB copper foil market remain bright. In the evolvement of this landscape, domestic firms are positioning themselves to carve out a more influential role within the global copper foil market, thus bolstering the development of China’s electronics information industry.